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We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323716
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides … an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be … used to forecast wages growth at the Australian Treasury. Australia's NAIRU was previously thought to be around 5 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012511675
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the … economic relation on the basis of which the NAIRU is derived. -- Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment ; state …-space estimation ; identification through heteroskedasticity ; trend inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657146
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the …-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881
The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the … European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case … of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458229
The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132857