non-linear dynamic models may be characterized and studied, where the degree of stability is defined by the effects of exogenous shocks on the evolution of the observed stochastic system. This type of stability concept is frequently of interest in economics, e.g., in real business cycle theory....

In this paper we briefly review Bayesian and frequentist prediction inference for time series, and then advocate the use of guaranteed-content prediction intervals. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They, thus, are more...

How has the European monetary integration, with the creation of the EMU, affected the stability and volatility of foreign exchange? In order to answer this question, stability and volatility measures are defined and calculated. We then use these to investigate the changes in the stability and...

Several studies have suggested that education is associated with later retirement from the labour market. In this paper, we examine whether adult education, involving enrolees aged 42 or above, delays retirement to potentially increase labour force participation among the elderly. With Swedish...

In this paper we present guaranteed-content prediction intervals for time series data. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They are thus more relevant for the observed time series at hand than classical prediction intervals,...

Several studies have suggested that education is associated with later retirement from the labour market. In this paper, we examine whether adult education, involving enrolees aged 42 or above, delays retirement to potentially increase labour force participation among the elderly. With Swedish...

Truncation or censoring of the response variable in a regression model is a problem in many applications, e.g. when the response is insurance claims or the durations of unemployment spells. We introduce a local polynomial re­gression estimator which can deal with such truncated or censored...

The purpose of this paper is to show how the stability properties of non-linear dynamic models may be characterized and studied, where the degree of stability is defined by the effects of exogenous shocks on the evolution of the observed stochastic system. This type of stability concept is...

Governments in the US, Canada and Europe have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyze if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42-55 at the time of enrolment in 1994-1995. The analysis explores longitudinal...