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In this paper, we explore the relationship between foreign aid fungibility and aggregate welfare. Using panel data from 35 low-income and lower-middle-income countries, we first check the presence of sectoral aid fungibility in our sample and find evidence for it. We then use econometric methods...
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In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and … explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML) models that offer different ways to deal with large datasets and we compare … with benchmark models. We find that ML methods substantially improve inflation forecasts for shorter horizons (one and …
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In Europe, the last decade has been shaped by euro crisis, migration crisis and corona crisis. Studies have analyzed how citizens react to crises in their voting behavior. This political economy analysis examines the research gap to what extent repeated crisis exposure within a short period of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013414563
Egypt's industries heavily rely on imported goods for production. Thus, an increase in imports could have a potentially positive effect on the labor market as it means more inputs for the production of exporting goods. Alternatively, minimal backward linkages in global value chains (GVCs) could...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013414938
present a simplified general equilibrium model inspired by Melitz (2003) with two sectors: one able to export and one "reserve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013414940
this type works best when it incorporates careful econometrics, serious consideration of underlying mechanisms (including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453958