We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of...

Almost one in ten adults in Britain do not use mainstream financial services. Most of them are not in paid employment. However, most people without paid work have accounts. Two hypotheses have been put forward: (i) reluctance by financial institutions to serve low-income customers; and (ii)...

By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is...

We provide empirical evidence that in a social network which evolves over time, it is possible to extract deep information about the system from limited observations. In this paper, we consider a simple piece of readily available evidence on access to financial services by individuals in the UK....

Qualitative evidence suggests that heresy within the medieval Church had many of the characteristics of a scale-free network. From the perspective of the Church, heresy can be seen as an infectious disease. The disease persisted for long periods of time, breaking out again even when the Church...

The Internet is known to have had a powerful impact on on-line retailer strategies in markets characterised by long-tail distribution of sales [C. Anderson, Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, Hyperion, New York, 2006]. Such retailers can exploit the long tail of the...

Propongo una reforma radical y ramificada del plan de estudios. Aún se debería enseñar el modelo básico de comportamiento del agente de la economía tradicional, pues no es totalmente irrelevante para el mundo real. Pero solo debería ser una de las numerosas formas de comportamiento de los...

In the 1990s and 2000s, unemployment was seen, both by academic labour market economists and policymakers, as a short-run disequilibrium phenomenon. Policy was aimed at increasing the 'flexibility' of the labour market, at removing obstacles to the workings of the market, which would ostensibly...

Both theoretical and applied economics have a great deal to say about many aspects of the firm, but the literature on the extinctions, or demises, of firms is very sparse. We use a publicly available data base covering some 6 million firms in the US and show that the underlying statistical...

There is considerable scope for further privatisation, with the particular aim of sharply reducing public sector claims on national output. However, survey evidence indicates considerable opposition to further privatisations, particularly those taking the form of creating dividend-paying joint...