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are found for Kenya, Mauritius, and South Africa. On the contrary, negative effects are found for Algeria, Nigeria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559201
We examine the dynamic impact of liquidity shocks resonating in stock and housing markets on real GDP growth. We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility to US data from 1970 to 2014. GDP becomes highly sensitive to house market liquidity shocks as disruptions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977876
Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest … spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We …, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065149
Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This is, however, at the expense of modeling flexibility, as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382075
unemployment in South Africa. Precisely, the findings show that a strikes shock has a positive transient impact on non …-agricultural employment in South Africa using a structural analysis of Bayesian VAR models with a Normal inverted Wishart prior for the period … 1982-2018. We find empirical support for a strikes shock's transitory negative impact on the country's output growth. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014503139
Financial sector development can play a crucial role in driving economic growth. Innovation in the payment system can potentially impact output, prices, and monetary policy transmissions. However, there is a conspicuous lack of work on the role of the payment system in driving economic activity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212688
fruitful. In terms of dynamic effects, a shock to GDP growth has robustly negative effects on the change in the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799537
This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947-2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814160
This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984158
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125