In the workhorse model of international real business cycles, financial integration exacerbates the cycle asymmetry created by country-specific supply shocks. The prediction is identical in response to purely common shocks in the same model augmented with simple country heterogeneity (eg, where...

This paper asks whether immigration to Britain has had any impact on average wages. There seems to be a broad consensus among academics that the share of immigrants in the workforce has little or no effect on the pay rates of the indigenous population. But the studies in the literature have...

In this paper, the Kalman filter method is applied to UK Phillips-curve models and estimates are derived for the NAIRU from 1973 to 2000. The resulting profiles suggest that the NAIRU peaked around the mid-1980s and fell back thereafter. Structural changes in the labour market have reduced...

Every quarter, NOP carries out a survey of the inflation expectations of the general public. This article illustrates how expectations vary according to individuals' different circumstances, and tries to explain how these differences might occur

This paper examines labour supply adjustment – both hours worked and participation decisions. The analysis focuses on the response of each to financial shocks, employing data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results suggest that employees whose financial situation deteriorates relative...

UK labour productivity has been persistently weak since the onset of the recent financial crisis. This suggests that there is significant spare capacity within UK companies, but business surveys instead point to little spare capacity. This article aims to shed light on this puzzle by looking at...

This paper examines labour supply adjustment – both hours worked and participation decisions. We focus on the response of each to financial shocks, employing data from the BHPS. Estimated responses are broadly consistent with models of self-insurance that incorporate labour supply flexibility....

This paper studies the impact of different types and styles of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communication on asset prices (stock prices, gilt yields and interest rate futures) from 1999-2023. We extend MPC communication to include MPC speeches and find MPC speeches to be an...

Immigration to the United Kingdom has risen rapidly over the past decade, driven most recently by flows from the ten EU Accession countries. Monetary policy makers are interested in the impact of immigration on the macroeconomy and inflation. An increase in the number of immigrants, other things...