Edge, Rochelle M.; Laubach, Thomas - Society for Economic Dynamics - SED - 2004
Shifts in the underlying growth rate of productivity, such as occurred in the 1970s and the 1990s, are relatively rare … and difficult to identify in real time. In this paper, we document that economists' projections of trend productivity … simple updating rule based on an estimated Kalman filter model. We then examine the effects of shifts in trend productivity …