Showing 31 - 40 of 104,105
This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643282
This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014178323
This paper shows that out-of-sample forecast comparisons can help prevent data mining-induced overfitting. The basic results are drawn from simulations of a Monte Carlo design and a real data-based design similar to those in Lovell (1983) and Hoover and Perez (1999). In each simulation, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014130093
The size and power properties of several tests of equal Mean Square Prediction Error (MSPE) and of Forecast Encompassing (FE) are evaluated, using Monte Carlo simulations, in the context of dynamic regressions. For nested models, the F-type test of forecast encompassing proposed by Clark and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149803
Estimated labor supply functions are important tools when designing an optimal income tax or calculating the effect of tax reforms. It is therefore of large importance to use estimation methods that give reliable results and to know their properties. In this paper Monte Carlo simulations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444063
indirectly affected by rising export demand. Furthermore, we examine potential impacts on specific worker groups, such as high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014420407
This paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for prediction and nowcasting with panel data consisting … series panel data structures and we find that it empirically outperforms the unstructured machine learning methods. We obtain … oracle inequalities for the pooled and fixed effects sparse-group LASSO panel data estimators recognizing that financial and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826088
This paper promotes the use of panel data in nowcasting. We shift the existing focus of the literature, which has … propose a mixed-frequency panel VAR model and a bias-corrected least squares (BCLS) estimator which attenuates the bias … inherent to fixed effects dynamic panel settings. We demonstrate how existing panel model selection and combination methods can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864837
-year panel survey data for Mozambique, and then apply the same technique to the 1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross … using synthetic panels provide results that are close to the true values obtained using the 2014/15 panel data. With respect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427968
-of-sample performance in a panel of emerging market economies following the collapse of Lehman Brothers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014161434