While Eugene Fama has repeatedly expressed his discontent with the notion of an 'irrational bubble', he has never publicly expressed his opinion on 'rational bubbles'. On empirical grounds Fama rejects bubbles by referring to the lack of reliable evidence that price declines are predictable...

We conduct a comprehensive international study of predictability in housing markets using the rent-price ratio as a predictive variable. On data from 18 OECD countries we generally find return predictability in accordance with time-varying risk-premia, but we also document two puzzles. First,...

The consumption-based asset pricing model with constant relative risk aversion explains the size and value premiums in US data over the period 1929 to 2014. The timing convention used for consumption is crucial for this result. The model matches the cross-sectional variation in mean returns on...

We argue that frequentist hypothesis testing - the dominant statistical evaluation paradigm in empirical research - is fundamentally unsuited for analysis of the nonexperimental data prevalent in economics and other social sciences. Frequentist tests comprise incompatible repeated sampling...