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Using a century of data, we show that Treasury convenience yield and inflation comove positively during the … inflationary 1970s-1980s, but negatively pre-WWII and post-2000. An inflation decomposition reveals that higher supply inflation … predicts higher convenience, while lower demand inflation follows higher convenience. In our model, inflationary cost …
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This work uses financial markets connected by arbitrage relations to investigate the dynamics of price and liquidity discovery, which refer to the cross-instrument forecasting power for prices and liquidity, respectively. Specifically, we seek to understand the linkage between the cheapest to...
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A safe asset is of high credit quality, retains its value in bad times, and is traded in liquid markets. We show that bonds issued by the European Union (EU) are widely considered to be of high credit quality, and that their yield spread over German Bunds remained contained during the 2020...
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This paper studies a recent tick size reduction in the U.S. Treasury securities market and identifies its effects on the market's liquidity and price efficiency. Employing difference-indifference regressions, we find that the bid-ask spread narrows significantly after the change, even for large...
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