We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which...

We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which...

We develop a nonlinear dynamic Cournot duopoly model in discrete time, where two bounded rational quantity-setting firms, both endowed with naïve expectations, are heterogeneous as to their cost functions and output strategies. One of the two competing firms adopts best-reply behaviour, whereas...