This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The aim is to analyze its performance, and mitigate its pitfalls by incorporating conditional variance estimates, as generated by a GARCH model. Notably, this paper tests several...

A multi-name credit derivative is a security that is tied to an underlying portfolio of corporate bonds and has payoffs that depend on the loss due to default in the portfolio. The value of a multi-name derivative depends on the distribution of portfolio loss at multiple horizons....

To examine the familiar tradeoff between risk and return in financial investments, we use a rolling two-stage stochastic program to compare mean-risk optimization models with time series momentum strategies. In a backtest of allocating investment between a market index and a risk-free asset, we...

Abstract Behavioural finance has challenged many claims of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Unfortunately many of these challenges are in the form of anecdotal evidence and lack quantification. This article uses market data together with some simple statistics to show that in practice certain...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Despite the proliferation of big data and quantitative information available for marketing decisions, surprisingly, we know little about which metrics marketers use for their decisions or how marketers make trade-offs between such metrics. To overcome this gap, we first propose a model based on...

The problem of multicollinearity in the assessments of coefficients is well established. However, it is rarely researched in the estimations of macroeconomic variables and economic performance of developing countries. Predicatively, it has impacts on the estimations of coefficients that should...

The study presents an analysis of the sediment thickness compared with bathymetric and geophysical settings in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, Indian Ocean. It uses a combination of the high-resolution data: topographic GEBCO, satellite and marine gravity anomalies, EGM2008 geoid and GlobSed...

The research problem is about to generate artificial fractal landscape surfaces from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using a stochastic algorithm by Geographic Resources Analysis Support System Geographic Information System (GRASS GIS) software. Fractal surfaces resemble appearance of natural...