This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This effect can be seen not only in high-frequency variables, but...

We estimate the marginal effects of identified components of global liquidity on 43 real economies. To this end, we employ global public and private credit components of Herwartz, Ochsner, and Rohloff (2021) in factor-augmented vector-autoregressions to trace credit shocks through the real...

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the...