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I explore whether time-series methods exploiting the long-run equilibrium properties of the housing market might have detected the disequilibrium in U.S. house prices which pre-dated the Great Recession as it was building up. Based on real-time data, I show that a VAR in levels identified as in...
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changes in the IRFs: at the ZLB the IRFs of GDP and unemployment exhibit more inertia, the response of prices is flatter, and …
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, inflation and unemployment, we detect a wrong sign in the response of inflation to contractionary monetary policy shocks … significant unemployment inflation trade-off emerges. These conclusions are confirmed by using industrial production instead of … 1999-2019, when the Federal Funds Rate and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate are added to the VAR model inflation shows …
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inflation, output, and long-term interest rates, central banks in small open economies face peculiar challenges in their …
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