Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform...

Estimates of differential mortality by socioeconomic status play an important role in several domains: in public policy for assessing distributional effects of public programs; in financial markets for the design of life insurance and annuities; and in individual decision making when figuring...

This study analyzes the extent to which an individual's survival expectations influence his or her decision to claim social security benefits at an early age. We find that subjective survival probabilities capture meaningful behavioral responses to incentives for early Social Security claiming...

This study analyzes the role of individual's and spouse's survival expectations and knowledge about Social Security rules on the expected Social Security claiming age, taking into account the various incentives single and married individuals face. There is substantial heterogeneity in the level...

In this chapter, I review the elicitation and use of subjective expectations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). I begin by describing several elicitation methods used in this context, together with the key relevant methodological issues, typical patterns of answers, and further...

Focusing on decisions in health and finance, we collected new data in a general population survey on (i) individual-specific attitudes toward risk, loss and ambiguity and (ii) individual-specific probabilistic beliefs about events related to the decisions we consider. The joint availability of...