Expectations regarding the economic development might be correlated due to various reasons: because individuals use the same public information and similar evaluation methods, and because of social learning or herding amongst peers. We analyse to what extent expectations are driven by herd...

It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

Are regions within a country really independent islands? Do economic relations and effects really have a homogenous, unique size across an entire country? These two assumptions are often imposed implicitly in empirical economic and social research. In his doctoral thesis, Norbert Schanne...

Are regions within a country really independent islands? Do economic relations and effects really have a homogenous, unique size across an entire country? These two assumptions are often imposed implicitly in empirical economic and social research. In his doctoral thesis, Norbert Schanne...

The labour-market policy-mix in Germany is increasingly being decided on a regional level. This requires additional knowledge about the regional development which (disaggregated) national forecasts cannot provide. Therefore, we separately forecast employment for the 176 German labour- market...

Was macht Gründungen aus Arbeitslosigkeit anders?' Um diese Frage zu beantworten, entwickeln wir einen theoretischen Ansatz für die Gründungsaktivität aus Arbeitslosigkeit. Weiterhin schätzen wir räumlich-autoregressive Modelle für die regionalen Gründungsraten aus Arbeitslosigkeit und...

Die Arbeitslosigkeit für die 176 deutschen administrativen Arbeitsmarktregionen (im Allgemeinen Arbeitsagenturbezirke) wird auf einer monatlichen Basis prognostiziert. Wegen ihrer geringen Größe existieren zwischen diesen regionalen Einheiten starke räumliche Interdependenzen. Um diese und...

This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use georeferenced record data for the entire working population (liable to social security) and the corresponding establishments in the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan area, which is Germany's largest (and EU's second...

Labour-market policies are increasingly being decided on a regional level. This implies that institutions have an increased need for regional forecasts as a guideline for their decision-making process. Therefore, we forecast regional unemployment in the 176 German labour market districts. We use...