We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...

We find that average returns to currency carry trades decrease signicantly as the maturity of the foreign bonds increases, because investment currencies tend to have small local bond term premia. The downward term structure of carry trade risk premia is informative about the temporal nature of...

banks.

We build portfolios of monthly currency forward contracts sorted on forward discounts. The spread between returns on the lowest and highest interest rate currency portfolios is more than 5 percentage points per annum between 1983 and 2007 after taking into account bid-ask spreads. The annualized...

We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation-swapped TIPS issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to TIPS. Total TIPS-Treasury mispricing has exceeded $56...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation-swapped Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative...</p>

Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate di®erential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate di®erential. We sort foreign currency returns into portfolios based on...

Investors earn positive excess returns on high interest rate foreign discount bonds, because these currencies appreciate on average. Lustig and Verdelhan (2005) show that investing in high interest rate foreign discount bonds exposes them to more aggregate consumption risk, while low interest...

This paper studies the effects of the joint distribution of the stock financial expertise and financial wealth on asset prices. By modeling financial expertise as a stock, we are able to incorporate economic ideas from capital theory as well as industrial organization into a model with slow...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>The largest commercial bank stocks, ranked by total size of the balance sheet, have significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than small- and medium-sized bank stocks, even though large banks are significantly more levered. We uncover a size factor in the component of bank...</p>