. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

to do something about it, and find a forecast process which produced results which actually aided insight and were … genuinely useful - in contrast to many forecast exercises which seem to be driven by political or `messaging' considerations and …