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German forecasters' narratives : how informative are German business cycle forecast reports?

Müller, Karsten - 2020

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293448

Uncertainty and forecasts of U.S. recessions

Pierdzioch, Christian; Gupta, Rangan - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 24 (2020) 4, pp. 1-21

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299545

Forecasting the UK economy : alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information

Boneva, Lena; Fawcett, Nicholas; Masolo, Riccardo M.; … - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 1, pp. 100-120

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300580

German economy slowly recovering following a deep slump

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 24/25, pp. 284-290

The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251300

The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations

Hagenhoff, Tim; Lustenhouwer, Joep - 2020

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an … own rational forecast to fail. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012253204

Forecasting Macedonian inflation : evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting

Petrovska, Magdalena; Ramadani, Gani; Naumovski, Nikola; … - 2017

models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011717605

Forecasting economic activity in data-rich environment

Leroux, Maxime; Kotchoni, Rachidi; Stevanovic, Dalibor - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590324

German economy closer to its limit

Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; … - 2018

at the current juncture, our forecast implies that the German economy is entering a boom period. Capacity constraints …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060677

German economy heating up

Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; … - 2017

The momentum of the expansion of the German economy is strong. Unchanged from our winter and spring forecasts, we expect a rise in gross domestic product by 1.7 percent in the current year and by 2 percent in 2018. This implies that throughout the forecasting period the expansion of aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060693

Growth rate of German economy normalizing after prolonged economic boom

Michelsen, Claus; Breuer, Christian; Bruns, Martin; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 50/52, pp. 510-513

The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946925