We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also...

Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994-2015 period. In a panel vector error-correction model of house...

We use an overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation to study the impact of the AIDS crises on growth. In our model, the AIDS crisis lowers life expectancy and thus the incentive to save and accumulate physical capital. Moreover, the AIDS crisis lowers the returns to human...

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general quilibrium (DSGE) model for the Japanese economy over 1970:Q1 through 1998:Q4, which is prior to the period of zero interest rate bound. More specifically, the New-Keynesian DSGE model with several frictions such as stickiness in price and wage,...

Although the concept of monetary policy lag has historical roots deep in the monetary economics literature, relatively little attention has been paid to the idea. In this paper, we build on Svensson's (1997) inflation targeting framework by explicitly taking into account the lagged effect of...