Recent literature on testing experts shows that it is often impossible to determine whether an expert knows the stochastic process that generates data. Despite this negative result, we show that there often exist contracts that allow a decision maker to attain the first-best payoff without...

I survey and discuss the recent literature on testing experts or probabilistic forecasts, which I would describe as a literature on “strategic hypothesis testing†The starting point of this literature is some surprising results of the following type: suppose that a criterion forjudging...