We estimate the macroeconomic effects of changes in loan-to-value limits using an approach that involves the cross-sectional loan-to-value distribution and does not require that a limit is actually in place. We show that the effects are asymmetric and non-linear as tighter limits constrain a...

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). I reformulate the models proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) and Neumeyer and Perri (2005) in simple settings that can be used to do...

The global financial crisis has forced standard macroeconomics to re-examine the plausibility of its assumptions and the adequacy of the policy prescriptions flowing from those assumptions. We believe a renewal of macroeconomic thinking and macroeconomic modeling is possible by recognizing that...

To nowcast output gap turning points, probabilistic indicators are created from a simple and transparent machine-learning algorithm known as Learning Vector Quantization. The real-time ability of the indicators to quickly and accurately detect economic turning points in the United States and in...

This paper examines the data of Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the dynamics among forecast dispersion and uncertainty in different horizons. We attempt to decipher macroeconomic uncertainty in a 3-dimensional framework as time, degree, good and bad. We find that ex ante short term...

Through this paper I try to join the lively debate around mainstream economics with a view to calling attention to some methodological aspects. It is aimed at outlining an interpretation based on Max Weber's traditional neoclassical methodology that can help us to find the adequate territory of...

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear general equilibrium model where occasionally binding collateral constraints on housing wealth drive an asymmetry in the link between housing prices and economic activity. The estimated model shows that, as collateral constraints became slack during...

We analyse the dynamics resulting from social learning in a simple general equilibrium (GE) model, whose structure is similar to the one underlying macroeconomic models of the New Macroeconomic Synthesis. The economy is composed by households and firms who exchange labour and consumption goods...

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained agents to pick up the decline in aggregate demand....

We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...