Die Wachstumsschwäche in einigen europäischen Ländern wie Portugal und Italien in der ersten Hälfte dieses Jahrzehnts sowie anhaltend hohe Inflationsraten und ein Bauboom in Spanien haben zu einer Debatte darüber geführt, ob sich möglicherweise die einzelnen Länder der Eurozone...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Es werden die makroökonomischen Prognosen der acht großen deutschen Forschungsinstitute evaluiert. Die Datenbasis umfasst die publizierten Prognosen für 11 Aggregate für den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2014. Zunächst wird jede Variable separat mittels aktueller Evaluationsmethoden untersucht. Diese...

The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...

Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small...

We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...

In den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften ist das Produktivitätswachstum seit den 1970er Jahren tendenziell gesunken, zeigen die Statistiken - eine Beobachtung, die angesichts der weitreichenden Digitalisierung der Wirtschaft erstaunt. Sie könnte auf Messfehlern beruhen, ist sie aber realistisch,...

We report results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Using data for 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...