Das Papier untersucht die makroökonomischen Determinanten der Arbeitslosigkeit. Dabei werden die Argumente neoklassisch-monetaristischer, neukeynesianischer und postkeynesianischer Provinienz auf ihren Gehalt sowohl theoretisch wie empirisch überprüft. Das Hauptgewicht der Analyse wird auf...

This paper examines the current state of price convergence amongst the eleven initial EMU member states. Special attention is given to possible changes in the convergence process during the euro cash changeover. We apply the sigma-convergence approach using both panel estimates of changes in the...

A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of...

Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German Laender we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth...

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying...

Assuming a risk-neutral bank and assuming household utility to be exponential, we show how under information symmetry the covariance of income and loan repayments may explain higher household borrowings than in the case without default option. Under ex post information asymmetry and positive...

The "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose" [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual mac-roeconomic forecast in Germany. Jointly produced by up to six institutes, its accuracy as well as the large number of involved participants is often criticised. This study examines the JD's growth and...

We compare the formation of quantitative infl ation perceptions and expectations from questions asked either in terms of price changes or in terms of the in flation rate in a new socio-economic household survey established at the University of Hamburg. In addition to socio-demographic...