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slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970177
well in finite samples. Finally, three applications demonstrate the utility of the method in time-series (forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007673
targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open …-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696333
Obwohl die Preise für Wohnimmobilien in den 127 größten deutschen Städten in den vergangenen Jahren kräftig gestiegen sind, gibt es nach wie vor keine Anzeichen für eine landesweite Immobilienpreisblase. Zwar haben sich die Preise für Eigentumswohnungen im Vergleich mit dem Jahr 2009 um...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664963
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942857
We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731783
; forecasting ; dynamic panel model ; spatial autocorrelation ; German cities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010079482
This paper considers the problem of prediction in a panel data regression model with spatial auto-correlation in the context of a simple demand equation for liquor. This is based on a panel of 43 states over the period 1965-1994. The spatial auto-correlation due to neighboring states and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014183179
This chapter presents a unified set of estimation methods for fitting a rich array of models describing dynamic relationships within a longitudinal data setting. The discussion surveys approaches for characterizing the micro dynamics of continuous dependent variables both over time and across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024953
shown that effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014046018