We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP, consumption, and investment. We find that auto stock returns are superior toaggregate stock market returns in predicting growth rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The...

This paper assesses the linkages between money, credit, house prices and economic activity in industrialised countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel VAR estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the period 1970-2006. The...

What can explain the long-term decline in equilibrium real interest rates? We analyze the importance of three of the most cited drivers; decreasing fertility, decreasing mortality, and a slowdown of technological growth. We do this through the lens of a general-equilibrium, two-country,...

In the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy, the creditworthiness of banks' corporate debtors may deteriorate due to a dual effect. First, the macro-financial environment may change due to coercive regulations and the resulting unavoidable higher investment costs, which indirectly...

The present contribution deals with the quantification of capital costs. The contribution is written on a theoretical basis. The costs will be particularly quantified in financing only by equity and only by debt capital and particularly in the so-called mixed financing in which weighted average...

The introduction of monetary variables into post-Keynesian models of distribution and growth is an ongoing process. Lavoie (1995) has proposed a Kaleckian ?Minsky-Steindl-model? of distribution and growth, incorporating the effects debt and debt services have on short and long run capital...

In this paper we review the empirical and theoretical literature on the effects of changes in the relationship between the financial sector and the non-financial sectors of the economy associated with 'financialisation' on distribution, growth, instability and crises. We take a macroeconomic...

The Global Crisis demonstrated to the world that Ratings Agencies had misled the public about the stability of financial institutions. The Finance literature had decided that it was impossible to have bubbles in financial markets and any surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent...

In this paper we provide a theoretical basis for the so-called "Armey curve," the inverted U-shape relationship between the level of government purchases and GDP growth, named after Armey (1995). We use an otherwise standard Keynesian model, augmented with a quadratic relationship between...

As well-known, the canonical Neo-Kaleckian growth model fails to reconcile actual and normal rates of utilization in equilibrium. Some recent contributions revive an old proposal for solving this problem - making the normal rate of utilization an endogenous variable that converges to the actual...