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, even though a considerable slowdown in bank lending has been recorded, there has not been a credit crunch. After a first …'s demand for bank loans. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is used – estimated for the pre-crisis period (1998.Q2 – 2007.Q2) and … applied to loans. To test the robustness of the results obtained in the first specification of the model, we remove the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137385
VAR model with excess credit growth and control variables (interest rate and inflation) over two periods, 1954 … credit growth and GDP volatility changed between the two periods, controlling for the stance of monetary policy, for … inflation, and for the endogeneity of credit to growth (as well as for other endogeneities). Results from Granger causality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260475
We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992 … Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We perform a number of specification tests, which suggest that developments in loans to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654298
combined with strong growth of credit to asset markets, in asset prices and in credit relative to output are all indicators of … the Great Moderation credit growth is driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth (Allen and Gale, 2000 … the hypothesis. This invites a reinterpretation of the Great Moderation. Our methodology may help understand when a credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118098
prices and in credit relative to output. The distribution of credit shifted towards the financial and real estate sectors … stability was destabilizing. We explore this interpretation by testing the Allen and Gale (2000) bubble feature that credit … growth was driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth. We test this distinguishing between credit to asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107854
This paper provides new evidence on the behaviour of euro area aggregate loans to the private sector. Using a sample … covering the last twenty years, a cointegrating vector linking the real stock of loans to a small set of domestic macroeconomic … variables is found. Besides real GDP and prices, this set includes a new measure of the cost of loans obtained as a weighted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344909
The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335600
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975q1-2010q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly unstable regime at the beginning of the previous decade. My results indicate that these imbalances could have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330263
There are a number of econometrics tools to deal with the different types of situations in which cointegration can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555274
This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1) and I(2) models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995197