This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That … is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the … indicators are used to bridge the gap of missing GDP data. The process of selecting the best performing equations is accomplished …

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That … is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the … indicators are used to bridge the gap of missing GDP data. The process of selecting the best performing equations is accomplished …

have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …

have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …

Using factor models, it has recently been shown that a pre-selection of indicators improves GDP forecasts in the very … approaches. Focusing on Euro Area GDP between 2005 and 2013, we find that a selection of targeted predictors by means of soft …- and hard-threshold algorithms improves the forecasting performance, especially during periods of economic crisis. While a …

, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time series of GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross … Literature, Limitations and Future Research, Gretl Scripts]. Additionally, I discovered a unique interaction between GDP and …, GDP responded positively and very significantly (0.00248) to GCEGI, while GCEGI reacted positively but not too …

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge …€STINY´s forecasting performance is clearly better than the standard alternative models and than the publicly available forecasts of other …

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one … forecasting a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we analyse to what extent its forecasting accuracy depends on the …

forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional … useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional … GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter. …

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the … probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of … explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the state of the GDP growth. A contemporaneous, as well as a lagged …