This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the London over-the-counter currency option market. The present work is motivated by the lack of empirical studies that address implied volatility characteristics across various...

The ad hoc Black-Scholes (AHBS) model is one of the most widely used option valuation models among practitioners models. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We have two main results: (1) we make the empirical observation that typically the call and put sneers are discontinuous...

In 2008, the S&P500 aggregated a loss of 30.16% during three selected days. Unfortunately, benchmark risk measures didn't forecast these hazards. Consequently, we witness a growing interest in coherent risk measures, sensitive to high moments and heavy tail risk. Such measures were proposed by...

In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...

This paper investigates whether ETF returns lead the returns of underlying bonds and similar style bond funds. Bond prices are often stale due to their lack of liquidity, and price discovery may occur in ETFs and then in underlying bonds. As predicted, we find that ETF returns predict its own...

This paper studies a large number of Bitcoin options traded on the options exchange Deribit. We use the trades to calculate implied volatility and analyze if volatility forecasts can be improved using such information. Implied volatility is less accurate than ARMA or HAR model forecasts in...

This paper examines whether the inclusion of oil price shocks of different origin as exogenous variables in a wide set of GARCH-X models improves the accuracy of their volatility forecasts for spot and 1-year time-charter tanker freight rates. Kilian's (2009) oil price shocks of different origin...

This paper proposes a tail risk index, TIX, as the growth rate of the model-free cumulant generating function of market risk calculated from index option prices. It captures the power law decay rate of the left tail of future return distributions, and thus reflects market beliefs about the...

We employ the forward-looking implied dividend information contained in option prices to predict dividend cuts and omissions during the recent financial crisis. The large number of dividend cuts and omissions during the 2008-09 financial crisis period provides the opportunity to study the...