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credit spreads and equity volatility. I build a dynamic model and estimate a wide array of fundamental shocks using a large … to 2014. A structural decomposition reveals that the joint dynamics of credit spreads and equity volatility is driven by … fluctuations in firms' asset values and aggregate asset volatility. I find that aggregate asset volatility captures the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929361
Using structural vector autoregression augmented with stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV), we document that in late 2000s … there were large spikes in volatility of spreads on peripheral eurozone government bonds. This increased volatility entailed … rise in spread volatility erodes banks' net worth and constrains their balance sheets. The banks respond by slashing their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891015
This article investigates returns and volatility linkages among stock markets, including emerging Asian (e.g., India …, Japan, and Singapore) stock markets. During the sample period, these emerging markets have experienced both rapid growth and … volatility. Finally, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to study the transmission dynamics in the presence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895619
nonlinear external habits can rationalize the evidence, and it implies that the competitive volatility of consumption is … volatility (a targeting of risk premia) rather than on filling the gap between consumption and its flexible-price counterpart …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897549
This paper presents a new volatility model with time-varying volatility persistence (TVP) that is governed by the … application to the U.S. stock market, we show that volatility persistence is positively related to realized volatility and that it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910313
Using a Markov-switching VAR, we show that the effects of uncertainty shocks on output are four times higher in a regime of economic distress than in a tranquil regime. We then provide a structural interpretation of these facts. To do so, we develop a business cycle model in which agents are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795652
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks with an emphasis on the interaction between elevated uncertainty and credit market conditions when the economy is in different regimes (recessions vs. non-recessions). We use a smooth-transition factor-augmented vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003975
used to dampen the resulting excess volatility, including a direct response to house price growth or credit growth in the … to house price growth or credit growth can stabilize some economic variables, it can significantly magnify the volatility …-average forecast rules for a subset of agents can significantly magnify the volatility and persistence of house prices and household …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007544
We provide an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility for economic activity. We consider … monthly measures of realized and implied volatility from the stock and bond markets. In a dynamic factor framework, we extract … the common long-run component of volatility that is likely to be linked to economic fundamentals. Based on powerful in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037474
of housing adjustment. In the time-series dimension, the model accounts for the pro-cyclicality and volatility of housing … following question: what are the consequences for aggregate volatility of an increase in household income and a decrease in down … can explain: (1) 45 percent of the reduction in the volatility of household investment; (2) the decline in the correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038658