turning points in GDP growth relative to distributed lag models that are augmented with information from macro …

leverage. We find that (i) although the spreads correlate with the left tail of the conditional distribution of GDP growth …, they provide limited advanced information on growth vulnerability; (ii) nonfinancial leverage provides a leading signal for … the left quantile of the GDP growth distribution in the 2008 recession; (iii) measures of excess leverage conceptually …

endogenously generated by the established OTD (Originate-To-Distribute) model within the new finance-growth paradigm. Good finance … fosters the correct allocation of financial resources, the fair redistribution of wealth and positive economic growth (the … financial system with the ability to create money ex nihilo, over time it drags the economy down to recession or negative growth …

We examine the pricing of both aggregate jump and volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns by constructing … investable option trading strategies that load on one factor but are orthogonal to the other. Both aggregate jump and volatility … volatility risk have low expected returns. Both can be measured separately and are important economically, with a two …

This paper investigates the intertemporal relation between volatility spreads and expected returns on the aggregate … stock market. We provide evidence for a signi ficantly negative link between volatility spreads and expected returns at the … extreme values. The intertemporal relation remains strongly negative after controlling for conditional volatility, variance …

geographical location experience an increase in deposit growth in the post-shock period relative to non-affected branches. Given … lending growth depending on their indirect exposure to the booming regions via their branch network. Even tough, these results …

geographical location experience an increase in deposit growth in the post-shock period relative to non-affected branches. Given … lending growth depending on their indirect exposure to the booming regions via their branch network. Even tough, these results …