In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited...

This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of...

In this paper, we study the implications of climate change on fiscal sustainability and inequality. First, using rich panel data, we show that rising climate-related disaster risks increase government debt and harm fiscal sustainability. We also find that the adverse effect of disaster risks is...

This paper empirically investigates how the level of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending affects monetary policy transmission in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Using statedependent local projection methods, we find that the macroeconomic effects of unanticipated changes in monetary policy are...

We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections to examine the role of political stability and financial development in the relationship. For a sample of 199 economies in 1990-2022, we first empirically...

Conventional wisdom suggests that the stocks of human capital were one of the few positive legacies from communism. However, if factories under communism were so inefficient, why would the education system not have been? Using the education production function approach and new data on...

This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area. We estimate panel and country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models by combining estimated damages of disaster events with monthly data for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)...