In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...

Reliable estimates of variances and covariances are crucial for portfolio management and risk controlling. This paper investigates alternative methods to estimate time varying variance-covariance matrices: ordinary estimates and exponentially weighted moving averages in comparison to Markov...

There are various parametric models to analyse the volatility in time series of financial market data. For maximum likelihood estimation these parametric methods require the assumption of a known conditional distribution. In this paper we examine the conditional distribution of daily DAX returns...

This paper reexamines the Equity Premium Puzzle for the German stock market with control for inflation and taxation. Two methods for relaxing the assumption of aggregate consumption being equal to aggregate dividends are compared: the leverage approach and the usage of a bivariate stochastic...

The behavior of asset prices is analyzed in a general equilibrium model where agents not only have preferences over consumption but also (implicitly) over their beliefs. Agents endogenously choose to disregard information contained in a signal if it conflicts with their desired beliefs. In this...

This paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach advocated by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach is based on a Bayesian...

This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts' reports. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown) 12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain...

This event study investigates the impact of the Japanese nuclear disaster in Fukushima-Daiichi on the daily stock prices of French, German, Japanese, and U.S. nuclear utility and alternative energy firms. Hypotheses regarding the (cumulative) abnormal returns based on a three-factor model are...

Der Einfluss der Rechnungslegung auf den Kapitalmarkt wir mittels verschiedener Ansätze empirisch untersucht. Insbesondere die Auswirkungen der Übernahme internationaler Rechnungslegungsstandards ist in den vergangenen Jahren in den Mittelpunkt der Forschung gerückt....

In this paper, we reexamine and extend the stochastic volatility model of Stein and Stein (1991) where volatility follows a mean-reversion Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Using Fourier inversion techniques we are able to allow for correlation between instan-taneous volatilities and the underlying...