When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed, in...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the United States, building on the LeeCarter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables...

Statistics Norway projects the population by age, sex and immigrant background at the national level. This paper examines the accuracy of the Norwegian population projections produced between 1996 and 2018. We assess deviations between projected and registered numbers, both for the total...

In this paper we implement a methodology that generates population projections combining the cohort-component method with Monte Carlo simulation of its main inputs: fertility rates by age, survival probabilities by age and gender and immigration flows by age and gender. The Monte Carlo...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the United States, building on the LeeCarter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables...

In den neuen Bundesländern wird die Bevölkerung auch in den kommenden Jahren weiter massiv schrumpfen. Dieser absehbare Rückgang der Bevölkerung und die damit einhergehende Alterung kann die gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik dämpfen. Aus diesem Grund wurde im Auftrag des...

This paper introduces the microWELT model. Starting from its objectives, we discuss design choices, the model architecture and key features. microWELT provides a demographic projection tool reproducing Eurostat population projections but adding details such as education, intergenerational...