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In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM's forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972991
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM's forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144596
This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, open-economy model which endogenously generates high exchange rate volatility, whereas a low degree of pass-through stems from both nominal rigidities (in the form of local currency pricing) and price discrimination. We model real exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061212
), is used by the Riksbank for interpretation of economic developments, forecasting, scenarios, and policy analysis. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240452
This paper uses a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) to study how different characteristics of an economy, such as openness or price stickiness, affect the contribution of the relative price of non-traded goods to real exchange rate fluctuations. The model shows that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006501
This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizing model to analyze the consequences of international capital mobility for the effectiveness of monetary policy in open economies. The model shows that the substitutability of goods produced in different countries plays a central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001672461
This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizing model to analyze the consequences of international capital mobility for the effectiveness of monetary policy in open economies. The model shows that the substitutability of goods produced in different countries plays a central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474961
This paper jointly analyses two major challenges of the canonical NOEM model: i) combining a relatively important exchange rate pass-through at the border with low pass-through at the consumer level, and ii) generating significant endogenous international business cycle synchronization. These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243783
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
forecasting model necessary in the MNB. The model represents a small open economy. It is based on the DSGE philosophy but it … deviates from it at several points. The new features of the model, compared to previous forecasting models of the MNB, are that … analysis, and the model fits into the MNB’s forecasting framework successfully. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011571328