In a general class of Markov-switching rational expectations models, this study derives necessary and sufficient conditions for determinacy, indeterminacy and the case of no stable solution. Classification of the models into these three mutually disjoint and exhaustive subsets is completely...

This paper generalizes the standard forward method of recursive substitution to a general class of linear Rational Expectations models with potentially multiple fundamental solutions. We propose a key property embedded in the forward solution -- the no-bubble condition -- as an economically...

The conditions that ensure the existence of a unique stable equilibrium – determinacy conditions - for rational expectations models with Markov switching depend on the stability concept, contrasting with standard linear rational expectations models. In this paper, we offer a unified framework...

Department: Economics.

Markov-switching rational expectations (MSRE) models can bring out fresh insights beyond what linear rational expectations models have done for macroeconomics, as noted and predicted by Davig and Leeper (2007) and Farmer, Waggoner and Zha (2009), among others. However, a lack of tractable...

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary...

Under reduced-form learning, agents are endowed with an aggregate model, and rational expectations are then replaced with subjective expectations. This paper demonstrates that the reduced-form learning approach may be arbitrary in that a particular representation of aggregate dynamics has...

A New-Keynesian macro-model is estimated accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and macro-shocks. A key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. Output and inflation shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 and...