The literature dealing with Milton Friedman's methodological framework tends to overlook his adhere nce to the neo-Bayesian interpretation of probability theory. In this note, it is shown that Friedman's probabilistic framework has deep i mplications for his notion of rationality and treatment...

This paper presents further evidence on the importance of sectoral shifts by examining unemployment fluctuations in the United States over the period 1960 to 1991, extending previous research in three directions: first, by using a thirty-industry decomposition of quarterly nonagricultural...

In this article a VAR-GARCH-M model for aggregate employment and employment shares is developed in order to explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shocks. Using US, UK and German quarterly data sets, the model is estimated and tested against alternative specifications. Three main issues...

Based on the macroeconomic VAR model for total employment and sectoral employment shares developed by Campbell and Kuttner (1996) we extend the model to a multivariate ARCH in mean (ARCH- M) model. We investigate the question of whether volatile growth in sectoral employment shares has an impact...

A VAR-GARCH-M model for aggregate employment and employment shares is developed to explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shocks. Using U.S., U.K. and German data, three main issues are investigated: the relevance of shocks volatility; the amount of aggregate employment growth variation...

In this paper we present the current crisis of the Italian economy as a phase of a major systemic decline. The social political system has led to a framework that has violated the fundamentals of sustained economic growth. An unhealthy implicit contract between the social-political elites and...

This study revisits the sectoral shifts hypothesis for the US for the period 1948 to 2011. A quantile regression approach is employed in order to investigate the asymmetric nature of the relationship between sectoral employment and unemployment. Significant asymmetries emerge. Lilien’s...

This paper critically appraises the approaches that have characterized the literature on the macroeconomic effects of job reallocations. Since Lilien's (1982) seminal contribution there has been a flourishing of empirical analysis but no unifying theoretical framework has obtained consensus in...

This paper appraises the literature on the macroeconomic effects of job reallocations. We overview different methodological approaches to the problem of observational equivalence of aggregate and sectoral shocks and draw two main conclusions. First, the non-directional nature of reallocation...