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This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight...
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We develop a model of limit order trading in which some traders have better information on future price volatility. As … visible. In either design, a large (resp. small) spread signals that informed limit order traders expect volatility to be high … significantly. Consistent with our model, we also find that the size of the spread is a predictor of future price volatility and …
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digital asset returns are driven by high frequency jumps clustered around black swan events, resembling volatility and trading …
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The statistical estimate of the branching ratio η of the Hawkes model, when fitted to windows of mid-price changes, has been reported to approach criticality (η = 1) as the fitting window becomes large. In this study -- using price changes from the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the...
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