Background: The shrinkage of working age population at ages between 15 and 59 after 2010 will end the era of the high-speed economic growth in China. This paper is intended to explore the ways of tackling this slowdown. Methods: By revealing annual growth rate of potential output to drop to 7.2...

The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work...

We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008-2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment...

This paper develops tools to examine selected major issues in the Indian economy. The study computes the potential growth rate of the economy and the agricultural sector, extends the analysis of the fiscal stimulus and its effects, and estimates the short and long run elasticities of India's...

We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment...

As Chari et al. (2007) indicate, many growth theories explaining frictions in real economies are equivalent to a competitive economy, with some exogenous taxes. Using this idea, I developed an accounting method for identifying fundamental causes of economic growth. A two-sector neoclassical...

With the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main characteristics of the demographic dividend having disappeared, China’s potential growth rate decreases. And our results suggest that demographic dividend contributed to nearly...

With the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main characteristics of the demographic dividend having disappeared, China’s potential growth rate decreases. And our results suggest that demographic dividend contributed to nearly...