If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of...

We examine a fundamental feature of choice under uncertainty: Overestimating an alternative makes one more likely to choose it. If people are naive to this structural feature, then they will tend to have erroneously inflated expectations for the alternatives they choose. In contrast to theories...