This analysis of the PÓlya urn scheme focuses on proving two new important results. First, the correlation structure between draws of a PÓlya urn scheme is uniform. Second, fixing the number of draws and the composition of the urn, a convex stochastic ordering is induced by the number of balls...

With the implementation of the Basel II accord, the development of accurate loss given default models is becoming increasingly important. The main objective of this paper is to propose a new model to estimate Loss Given Default (LGD) for bank loans by applying generalized additive models. Our...

For assessing the effect of undiversified idiosyncratic risk, Basel II has established that banks should measure and control their credit concentration risk. Concentration risk in credit portfolios comes into being through an uneven distribution of bank loans to individual borrowers (single-name...

We propose a new methodology based on the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula to model cross-border systemic risk. The proposed framework estimates the impact of the systematic and idiosyncratic components on systemic risk. Initially, we propose a maximum-likelihood method to estimate the parameter of...

This paper develops a method for handling two-class classification problems with highly unbalanced class sizes and misclassification costs. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional classification methods tend to strongly favour the...