This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...

We used a time-series cross-section dataset to test several hypotheses pertaining to the role of macroprudential policy instruments in the management of the financial cycle in advanced open economies. The short-run effects are most significant for caps on loan to value and income (LTV and LTI)...