We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of … horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other predictors such as forward rate spread or equity variance risk … long-run risk, economic uncertainty, and inflation non-neutrality. In the model IRVRP is related to short-run risk only …

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation …