This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different...

We test if social work norms are important for work absence due to self-perceived sick-ness. To this end, we use a randomized social experiment designed to estimate the effect of monitoring on work absence. The treated were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to use sickness...

This paper re-examines inference for cluster samples. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as a new method to perform inference when the number of groups is small. Based on estimations using disaggregated data, the sensitivity of the standard errors with respect to the variance of the cluster...

This paper discusses the case for expanding active labor market policy in recession. We find that there is reasonable case for relying more heavily on certain kinds of programs. The argument is tied to the varying size of the lock-in effect in boom and recession. If programs with relatively...

Unemployment insurance systems include monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated. We analyze the effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality, notably on wage rates and hours worked, and we examine how often a sanction leads to a lower...

Unemployment insurance systems include monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated. We analyze the effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality, notably on wage rates and hours worked, and we examine how often a sanction leads to a lower...

We re-analyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed...

Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are highly heterogeneous. We find as much heterogeneity within as across closing establishments, and within as across worker types defined by...

This paper proposes a new framework for analyzing the effects of sequences of treatments with duration outcomes. Applications include sequences of active labor market policies assigned at specific unemployment durations and sequences of medical treatments. We consider evaluation under...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...