This paper analyzes the level and cyclicality of bank capital requirement in relation to (i) the model methodologies through-the-cycle and point-in-time, (ii) four distinct downturn loss rate given default concepts, and (iii) US corporate and mortgage loans. The major finding is that less...

The paper proposes a sequential Bayesian updating approach to estimate default probabilities on rating grade level for no- and low-default portfolios.Bayesian sequential updating enables default probabilities to be obtained also for those rating grades for which no defaults have been...

This paper derives a closed form formula for value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) under a widely used Merton type multi-factor model for a credit portfolio with guaranteed loans.Typically used Monte Carlo simulations tend to converge slowly when the default probabilities are low and...

This article proposes a sequential Bayesian updating approach to estimate default probabilities on rating grade level for no- and low-default portfolios. Bayesian sequential updating allows to obtain default probabilities also for those rating grades for which no defaults have been observed. The...

Estimating expected credit losses on banks' portfolios has long been difficult. The issue has become of increasing interest to academics and regulators, as the FASB and IASB consider new regulations for impairment of loans. This study develops a measure of the one-year-ahead expected rate of...

This study develops a timely and unbiased measure of expected credit losses. The expected rate of credit losses (ExpectedRCL) is a linear combination of various non-discretionary credit risk-related measures disclosed by banks. ExpectedRCL performs substantially better than net charge-offs,...

We consider the problem of optimally selecting a large portfolio of risky loans, such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, or business loans. Examples include loan portfolios held by financial institutions and fixed-income investors as well as pools of loans backing mortgage-...

A continuous-time deterministic model for analytical simulation of impact of the change in yield curve on bank's interest income from a fixed rate loans portfolio is presented. It is considered both differential and integral presentations of equations for dynamics of principal and interest cash...

In this article, I compare credit risk models that are used for loan portfolios, both from a theoretical perspective and via simulation studies. My study is distinct from previous studies by including new models, considering sector correlation, and performing comprehensive sensitivity analysis....