We consider the problem of optimally selecting a large portfolio of risky loans, such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, or business loans. Examples include loan portfolios held by financial institutions and fixed-income investors as well as pools of loans backing mortgage-...

The paper proposes a sequential Bayesian updating approach to estimate default probabilities on rating grade level for no- and low-default portfolios.Bayesian sequential updating enables default probabilities to be obtained also for those rating grades for which no defaults have been...

We propose a dynamic structural model of credit risk of multiple loan portfolios. In line with Merton, Vasicek and Pykhtin, we assume that a loan defaults if the assets of the debtor fall below his liabilities, and that the subsequent loss given default is determined by the collateral value. For...

Estimating expected credit losses on banks' portfolios is difficult. The issue has become of increasing interest to academics and regulators with the FASB and IASB issuing new regulations for loan impairment. We develop a measure of the one-year-ahead expected rate of credit losses (ExpectedRCL)...

This paper derives a closed form formula for value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) under a widely used Merton type multi-factor model for a credit portfolio with guaranteed loans.Typically used Monte Carlo simulations tend to converge slowly when the default probabilities are low and...

This article proposes a sequential Bayesian updating approach to estimate default probabilities on rating grade level for no- and low-default portfolios. Bayesian sequential updating allows to obtain default probabilities also for those rating grades for which no defaults have been observed. The...

A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact - abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases - from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about phase switches increases, expected losses decouple from unexpected...

The author's study analyzes, loan valuation methods using discrete time model of contingent claims analysis. In the empirical test, the undiversifiable risk was measured by the correlation coefficient of one borrower with the average return of all borrowers. The results of the test supported the...

Estimating expected credit losses on banks' portfolios has long been difficult. The issue has become of increasing interest to academics and regulators, as the FASB and IASB consider new regulations for impairment of loans. This study develops a measure of the one-year-ahead expected rate of...