Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they...

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

The economic recession of 2007-2009 proved to be a difficult period for most European economies. Poland was among the few countries that recorded positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth during that period. The main reason for its performance was that private consumption stimulated the GDP....

Using changes in the possession of household assets over the past 20 years, several recent papers have argued that economic performance in Arica was substantially better than suggested by national income data and income poverty statistics, who suffer from well-known weaknesses. We scrutinize...

Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day prior to GDP release and track the release days...