In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing...

This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF's experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund's...

The role of the income balance in mitigating external vulnerabilities remains underexplored. We estimate income balance semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate. Semi-elasticities are small for most countries. Therefore, the income balance is generally not a significant channel...

The first issue we study is the impact of transport costs on the volume and nature of international trade.  To what extent has the rise in international trade been driven by changes in transport costs?  Why is cross-country and cross-regional experience so different?  Transport costs also...

We develop a model of endogenous skill-biased technical change in developing countries.  The model reconciles wildly dispersed existing estimates of the elasticity of substitution between more and less educated workers.  It also produces an estimating equation for the elasticity, which allow...