Literature Review -- Return Predictability and the Real Economy -- Study Design and Data -- Empirical Part I - Testing for Predictability -- Forecasting Models -- Empirical Part II - Investment Strategies -- Conclusion

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is...

In 2008, the S&P 500 experienced a drawdown of about 50% from peak to trough. Many assets which are typically considered effective equity diversifiers also faced precipitous losses. In stark contrast, volatility levels as measured by VIX experienced significant increases and in 2008 repeatedly...

Recently, the investor overreaction catches the attention of the academicians and practitioners. The topic comes under the limelight of academicians and policymakers. This study, therefore, addresses investor overreaction and its relationship with the global financial crisis for the period of...