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This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276165
In an integrated economy-ecosystem model humans choose their land use and leave the residual land as habitat for three species forming a food chain. The size of habitat determines the diversity and abundance of species. That biodiversity generates, in turn, a flow of ecosystem services with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276166
Labor market institutions, via their effect on the wage structure, affect the investment decisions of firms in labor markets with frictions. This observation helps explain rising wage inequality in the US, but a relatively stable wage structure in Europe in the 1980s. These different trends are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276167
This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T) and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276171
Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276173
imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted … equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. This approach has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276174
This paper describes a semiparametric Bayesian method for analyzing duration data. The proposed estimator specifies a complete functional form for duration spells, but allows flexibility by introducing an individual heterogeneity term, which follows a Dirichlet mixture distribution. I show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276176
This paper estimates the structural parameters of a job search model with hyperbolic discounting and endogenous search effort. It estimates quantitatively the degree of hyperbolic discounting, and assesses its implications for the impact of various policy interventions aimed at reducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276177
This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276178
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180